According to a March 14 analysis of the Lieberman-Warner climate change bill and two competing Senate bills prepared by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the former would impact the U.S. economy more severely than the others, but it would make significantly greater reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
According to the agency report, the Lieberman-Warner bill would cost the economy between 1 - 3.8 percent of GDP growth ($238 - $983 billion). By contrast, the Bingaman-Specter and Lieberman-McCain proposals would cost roughly 0.5 - 1.4 percent.
Comparing the three bills’ respective reductions of GHG between 2012 and 2050, the report says that Lieberman-Warner would reduce emissions by 35 - 48 percent, Bingaman-Specter by 23 - 27 percent, and Lieberman-McCain by 25 - 29 percent.
In a future GHG market, carbon dioxide prices under Lieberman-Warner would cost industry more than double ($46 - $83 per ton) what it would pay under rival measures. By 2050, Lieberman-Warner’s CO2 price would jump to between $121 and $220 per ton, Bingaman-Specter bill tops off at $65 per ton, and Lieberman-McCain would cost $70 - $85.
Regarding impacts to U.S. energy production under the three bills, the report says the Lieberman-Warner bill’s tighter emission limits would drive significant growth by 2025 in renewable energy (61 new gigawatts) and nuclear power (44 new GW). The bill contrasts sharply with current U.S. energy policy, under which renewables would grow by only 4 GW and nuclear by just 6 GW.
In response to the EPA analysis, Sens. Lieberman and Warner explained in a press release that their legislation directs more than $1 trillion toward consumers to help lower and offset any increased energy costs.
On March 13, the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and the American Council for Capital Formation (ACCF) unveiled a joint study of the Lieberman-Warner measure, which concluded that the legislation would have a profound economic impact on the U.S., including:
- GDP losses of $151 - $210 billion in 2020 and $631 - $669 billion per year in 2030;
- Employment losses of 1.2 - 1.8 million jobs in 2020 and 3 - 4 million jobs in 2030;
- Household income losses of $739 - $2,927 per year in 2020 and $4,022 to $6,752 per year in 2030;
- Electricity price increases of 28 - 33 percent by 2020 and 101 – 129 percent by 2030;
- Gas price increases per gallon of 20 – 69 percent by 2020 and 77 – 145 percent by 2030.